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You are able to fetch the most recent presentations on the Indonesian Central Bank’s Recent Economic Developments dated February 2010, January 2010, and dated December 2009. The February 2010 full edition comes with a section on Economic Outlook for 2010. Below is a quick description of the content of each document.

Preview (February 2010 edition)

Indonesia’s economy has posted robust growth in 2008 and one of the rare countries which successfully posted a positive growth rate in 2009, navigating through the global financial turmoil and economic slowdown. For the whole 2009, the economy charted fairly vigorous growth at 4.5% (yoy) and it is projected at 5.5% in 2010

• Banking industry is in stable condition with high level of CAR (17.4%) and comfortably safe level of NPL (gross) at a 3.8% (as of December 2009 data).
• By end of the Q4-2009, Indonesia ’s overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$4.0 billion larger than a surplus of US$3.5 billion in the preceding quarter, resulted from surpluses in both the current account as well as the capital and financial account.
• International reserves reached to USD69.5 billion as of end of January 2010, equivalent to about 6.8 months of imports and official external debt payment.
• In 2009, Rupiah has been showing an appreciation trend, mainly supported by continuing of global economic recovery and positive economic performance which outperformed regional economies. Rupiah strengthened from IDR 10,950 against USD as on December 31, 2008 to IDR 9,400 against USD as on December 31, 2009, representing 16.5% appreciation .
• Monetary relaxation during 2009 has provided ample support for the economic recovery and bank intermediation processes. At the latest Board of Governors Meeting convened in January 2010, The BI ratedecided to be kept at 6.50% after concluding the present level of the BI Rate is consistent with achievement of the 2010 inflation target, set at 5%±1%. In the balance of risk, the probability of renewed inflationary pressure is low, at least during the first half of 2010. The BI Rate is also seen as favorable to boost economic recovery, maintain financial system stability and promote the banking intermediation function.
• The Indonesian economy in 2009 has charted remarkably low inflation. In 2009, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded annual inflation at 2.8% (yoy). Inflationary pressure has eased in response to the government decision to lower fuel prices at the beginning of the year, external factors of lower trading partner inflation, appreciation of the exchange rate, and better public expectations on inflation. In January 2010, monthly inflation arrived at 0,84% (mtm) or 3,58% (yoy), slightly higher than the previous month. Inflation in January 2010 was driven mainly by volatile food, especially rice. However, we are confident Inflation in 2010 will stay within the target range of 5%±1%.
• With the fiscal deficit target of 1.6% of GDP in 2010, Government continues to maintain the balancing act to support the recovery and to anticipate the global growth momentum going forward by improving public infrastructure and energy. In the medium term, fiscal policy is directed toward maintaining fiscal consolidation while at the same time sustaining fiscal stimulus. We expect to see fiscal deficit move on a downward trend. On the revenue side, tax ratio is expected to pick up.

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Synopsis (February 2010 full edition)

Performance of the Indonesian economy continues to show improvement in line with better economic conditions and global financial markets. In 2009 Indonesia was able to post a positive growth at 4.5% (yoy). This level of growth was relatively high compare to neighbouring countries.

The Indonesian economy has resumed a phase of accelerating economic growth. The indicators suggest that growth passed through a trough in Q2/2009 at 4.0% before picking up in the subsequent quarters. With the upbeat outlook for an accelerating economic growth trend, we expect to see improved growth of 5.0-5.5% (yoy) in 2010.

Table of Contents (February 2010 full edition)

• Recent Economic Development
• Economic Outlook 2010
• Risk Factors
• Macroeconomic Outlook

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Table of Contents (January 2010 edition)

(i) Indonesia Story: as Acknowledge by Rating Agencies

(ii) Positive Macroeconomic Developments

• Real Sector: Indonesia Development Policy
• Fiscal Policy Overview 2009 and 2010
• Economic Growth Sustained
• Banking Stability
• Stable and Profitable Banking Sector
• Strong Balance of Payments Performance
• Flexible monetary policy to support growth objectives
• Inflation Expectation
• In 2010, Indonesian economy is positioned to grow beyond original forecasts

Preview (January 2010 edition)

Indonesia’s economy has posted robust growth in 2008 and one of the rare countries which successfully posted a positive growth rate in 2009, navigating through the global financial turmoil and economic slowdown. GDP growth, in excess of 6% in 2008, reached 4.2% for the first nine months of 2009. In preliminary figures for 2009, the economy charted fairly vigorous grow that 4.3% (yoy) and it is projected at 5.5% in 2010.

Banking industry is in stable condition with high level of CAR (17%) and comfortably safe level of NPL(gross) at a subdued level below 5% (latest data as of November 2009).

By end of the Q3-2009, Indonesia’s overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$3.5billion (Q2-2009: US$1.1billion), resulted from surpluses in both the current account as well as the capital and financial account.

International reserves reached USD66.0 billion as of end of December 2009, equivalent to about 6.58 months of imports and official external debt payment.

In 2009, Rupiah has been showing an appreciation trend, mainly supported by continuing of global economic recovery and positive economic performance which outperformed regional economies. Rupiah strengthened from IDR 10,950 against USD as on December 31, 2008 to IDR 9,400 against USD as on December 31, 2009, representing 16.5% appreciation .

The monetary relaxation during 2009 has provided ample support for the economic recovery and bank intermediation processes. At the latest Board of Governors Meeting convened in January 2010, The BI ratedecided to be kept at 6.50% after concluding the present level of the BI Rate is consistent with achievement of the 2010 inflation target, set at 5%±1%. In the balance of risk, there are little likelihood of renewed inflationary pressure, at least during the first half of 2010. The BI Rate is also seen as conducive to efforts to boost economic recovery, maintain financial system stability and promote the banking intermediation function.

The Indonesian economy in 2009 has charted remarkably low inflation. In 2009, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded annual inflation at 2.8% (yoy). Inflationary pressure has eased in response to the government decision to lower fuel prices at the beginning of the year, external factors of lower trading partner inflation, appreciation in the exchange rate and softening public expectations of inflation.

With the target of fiscal deficit 1.6% of GDP in 2010 Budget, fiscal policy is taking into account the need to stimulate the economy and will continue at a slower pace in 2010. Tax policy reform continues with lower tariff and higher compliance.

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Table of Contents (December 2009 edition)

1. Macroeconomic Highlights

• Response to the Crisis: Monetary and Banking
• Real Sector: Indonesia Development Policy
  Response to the Crisis: Fiscal
• Indonesia Story: as acknowledged by Rating Agencies
• Economic Growth Sustained
• Banking Stability
• Strong Balance of Payments Performance
• Inflation has been Trending Downward
• Inflation Expectation
• Exchange Rate: Strengthened and more stable through 2009
• Improved Confidence in the Equity Market
• Performance of the Global Bond Has Been Significantly Improved
• In 2010, the Indonesian Economy is Positioned to grow beyond original forecasts

2. Bank Indonesia Monetary Policy
3. Bank Indonesia Banking Policy
4. Balance of Payments Performance Q3 2009
5. State Budget
6. Debt Management and Debt Profile

Preview (December 2009 edition)

• Indonesia was named the region most active business reformer in East Asia and the Pacific according to Doing Business Index 2010 surveyed by the International Finance Corporation (IFC). Indonesia’s rank in the index moved up from 129 to 122.
• Indonesia’s rank in The Global Competitive Index (GCI) 2009-2010 moved up from 55 to 54 (score 4.26) which is the third consecutive rank increase since 2007. The increase mainly supported from business establishment factor and innovation factor.
• Indonesia has been one of the few countries leading the economic recovery, with a resilient growth over the last 2 years. One of the rare countries which successfully posted a positive growth rate in 2009, the third fastest growing economy in the G-20. Even during the worst of the global economic slow down, the economy was still able to generate a positive growth of 4.4% in Q1-2009, 4.0% in Q2-2009, and 4.2% in Q3-2009. For overall 2009 we expect to record growth within the range of 4-4.5%.
• Banking industry has stayed resilient with high level of CAR (17.6%) and NPL (gross) at a subdued level of 4.3% and net at 1.2% (latest data as of October 2009).
• By end of the Q3-2009, Indonesia’s overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$3.5 billion (Q2-2009: US$ 1.1 billion), resulted from surpluses in both the current account as well as the capital and financial account.
• International reserves reached US$ 66.85 billion as of end of November 2009, equivalent to about 6.5 months of imports and official debt service payments.
• The Rupiah exchange rates have been showing an appreciation trend, mainly supported continuing of global economic recovery and domestic economic performance. During Q4-2009 (up to end of November) Rupiah appreciated from 5.3% to Rp9,463 against USD. Rupiah continues appreciated to Rp9,436 against USD as per December 4^th, 2009.
• Up to end of November 2009, the CPI recorded 0.03% deflation (m-t-m) alongside annual inflation at 2.4% (y-o-y). Accordingly, potential inflation in 2009 to come below the BI inflation target set at 4.5% ±1.
• The latest monthly Board of Governors’ Meeting convened in December 2009 decided to leave BI Rate unchanged at 6,50%, which is considered adequate to the economic recovery process.
• Fiscal policy is taking into account the need to stimulate the economy and will continue at as lower pace in 2010. Tax policy reform continues with lower tariff and higher compliance.
• 2010 Budged provides fiscal space to implement priority programs of the government.
• Going forward, dramatic slow in world economy pose significant challenges to the economy in 2009.